AUDUSD Weekly distribution suggests selling rallies

💡AUDUSD may still produce some short-term rebound, but the main weekly-chart reading still favors a distribution scenario near the top.

📈On the chart, the 0.60–0.61 region showed relevant buying defense in the past, with notable volume at the lows, which suggests prior accumulation. The 0.64 area then acted as an important structural support/resistance zone before the expansion toward 0.70–0.71.

📊After that rally, heavier volumes began to appear in the upper region without clean continuation of the move. That signature is more consistent with distribution than with a structurally bullish continuation.

🌐From the macro side, the short-term backdrop remains mixed. Temporary relief in the US/Iran headlines helped risk appetite, supported equities, and gave some support to AUD. But the situation is still far from resolved. Iran remains firm in its rhetoric, geopolitical risk is still elevated, oil remains sensitive, and the market also does not see the Fed as clearly dovish at this stage.

📈That creates an important combination:
the macro backdrop may still allow AUDUSD rebounds,
but the broader context still does not invalidate a bearish resumption afterward.

💡Because of that, the best read is not to chase a sell in the middle of the move, but rather to watch for shorts from a better-positioned area or after confirmed support loss.

Technical and liquidity reading

🔹The 0.7000 to 0.7100 range appears to be the main weekly distribution zone.
🔹If price returns there and shows rejection, with notable volume and little progress, the bearish thesis gains strength.
🔹If there is no rebound and the market loses 0.6920–0.6900 with acceptance below, bearish continuation also becomes technically valid.

🔹The larger descending trendline still has not been convincingly broken.
🔹As long as the 0.7120–0.7150 area is not reclaimed with strength, the main bias still favors correction or partial reversal to the downside.

💡Possible trade setup

📌Conservative entry:
sell on a pullback into 0.7000–0.7050, preferably with clear rejection.

📌Aggressive entry:
sell on the loss of 0.6920–0.6900, ideally waiting for a pullback and confirmation below.

Invalidation:
🔴strong close above 0.7120–0.7150.

🟢Take profits:

• TP1: 0.6900
• TP2: 0.6800
• TP3: 0.6500

The 0.6200 area remains possible as an extended scenario target, but at this stage I would treat that level as a more aggressive extension, not as the main base target of the trade.

Management

⚠️If price reaches 0.6900, it makes sense to reduce part of the position and protect the remainder.
⚠️If it reaches the 0.6750–0.6800 range, the trade is already in a very favorable result zone, and management can become more defensive.
⚠️Below that, 0.6450–0.6500 becomes the next major realization area.

⚠️⚠️In trades based on weekly candles, pay close attention to the swap conditions offered by your broker.
At many brokers, selling AUDUSD costs less overnight than buying it, but that does not necessarily mean a positive swap. In other words, shorts tend to be less costly than longs at many firms, which helps with holding the trade, but it still requires checking your own broker before carrying the position for many weeks.

⚠️⚠️⚠️👉It is also worth closely monitoring the conflict in Iran, because that news flow can accelerate either a rebound or the resumption of the bearish move.

⚡Conclusion

The main reading is one of weekly distribution after the rally into 0.70–0.71.
The short-term macro backdrop may still generate rebounds, but the broader background has not removed the risk of bearish continuation.
Because of that, the best asymmetry still lies in looking for sells on rallies or after confirmed support loss, with initial focus on 0.6900, then 0.6750–0.6800, and finally 0.6450–0.6500.

⚠️This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Manage your risk with discipline.

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