Bitcoin recovered toward the end of last week as investors shifted back into risk-on assets following the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, the broader outlook remains heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and overall capital flows into risk assets. If U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar strengthen again, buying interest in the cryptocurrency market could come under renewed pressure.
This week, investors will closely monitor key U.S. labor market data, which could shape expectations for future Fed rate cuts and drive volatility in Bitcoin.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin has started to recover from the key support level around 58,018, where buying interest emerged from a significant Demand Zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered above the 40 level, while the MACD is beginning to cross above its Signal line and the Histogram continues to improve, indicating that selling pressure is gradually fading.
However, the broader market structure remains sideways-to-bearish, as price has yet to reclaim the 61,800–62,692 resistance zone, which coincides with the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and an area of significant selling pressure.
Primary Scenario
If Bitcoin can hold above 61,800 and break through the key resistance at 62,692, it would confirm a short-term recovery and open the door for a further advance toward 63,963.
However, if price fails to break above this resistance zone, profit-taking could emerge, pushing Bitcoin back toward the support levels at 59,383 and 58,018. A decisive break below 58,018 would reinforce the prevailing bearish momentum and increase the likelihood of a deeper correction.
Risks
This week, Bitcoin is expected to remain primarily driven by macroeconomic factors. Investors will closely monitor key U.S. economic releases, including JOLTS Job Openings, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate, as these data could significantly influence capital flows into risk assets.
In addition, market participants should keep a close eye on U.S. Treasury yields, the VIX Index, and capital flows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Improving investor sentiment and renewed inflows into risk assets could support further upside in Bitcoin. Conversely, if market volatility increases or macroeconomic conditions strengthen the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, Bitcoin could face renewed selling pressure.
Key Levels
Resistance
61,800
62,692
63,963
Support
60,138
59,383
58,018