climbed above $78,000 to an 11-week high as investors reacted positively to President Trump’s decision to extend the US ceasefire with Iran.
The largest cryptocurrency is up around 2% over the past 24 hours and has gained more than 5% over the past week. Ethereum is also higher, rising roughly 3% over the same period.
Markets Price Optimism Despite Lingering Uncertainty
Trump said the ceasefire would continue indefinitely, but also confirmed that the US would maintain its blockade of Iranian ports. This suggests the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain closed, leaving uncertainty around the path forward.
Despite this, markets appear to be focusing on a more optimistic endgame. remain below $100 per barrel, while US equities continue to trade near record highs — indicating that investors are increasingly willing to look through near-term risks and price in an eventual resolution.
Bitcoin – Equities Correlation Is Supportive
Bitcoin’s recent price action reinforces its growing role as a macro-sensitive asset.
BTC’s 30-day correlation with the has risen sharply to around 0.94, rebounding from negative levels in mid-March. This highlights how closely crypto is now tracking broader risk sentiment, particularly equity markets.
The risk to this outlook is that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, oil prices could move higher again, lifting inflation expectations and Treasury yields. That would likely prompt a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve — a scenario that typically weighs on Bitcoin.
Institutional Demand Provides Support and Sentiment Improves
Institutional flows continue to underpin the market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a sixth consecutive day of net inflows, which, if it persists, could support BTC higher. Corporate demand is also strong. Strategy’s recent $2.5 billion Bitcoin purchase adds to the constructive backdrop, reinforcing long-term demand and helping absorb supply.
Crypto market sentiment is also recovering. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has rebounded to 33, moving back into “Fear” territory from an extreme low of 8 at the start of April. This suggests a gradual shift towards risk-taking, though conditions remain far from euphoric.
This type of environment — improving but cautious sentiment — can support further upside, provided macro conditions remain stable.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
BTC trades within an ascending channel dating back to early February. The price has pushed above the longer-term falling trendline dating back to the 126k October high and holds above its 50 SMA.
Buyers will look to extend the bullish move, supported by the RSI above 50. Resistance is seen at 78k, the April high. A rise above here opens the door to 80k, the round number and November low ahead of 85k, the 38.2% Fib retracement of the 126k high and 60k low, as well as the 200 SMA. At these levels, the BTC price is on a firmer footing.
On the downside, BTC support is around 71k, the falling trendline support, and the 50 SMA. Below here, 68k, the lower band of the rising channel comes into focus ahead of 65k, the March low. A break below 65k creates a lower low and brings 60k the 2026 low into focus.
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