After breaking ~$75,000, has made significant progress towards $80,635.
But that still does not invalidate the fact that the bedrock of crypto has been in a downtrend since November last year.
Several technical factors now line up to present an imminent decline on Bitcoin:
- A rising channel starting from February 2026, which is possibly a bear flag pattern
- Decreasing volume, which supports the thesis of a pattern formation
- A test of the 200 EMA band (0.25 sd) which has suppressed Bitcoin since November 2025
- A test of $80,537 — the weekly low of Bitcoin — since November 2025
Note, this is not a trade setup, but rather a technical bias we’re presenting here; simply by way of multiple bearish confluences lining up. Personally, I expect Bitcoin to, sooner rather than later, begin its final leg lower before a true bottom is formed.
Daily Chart Analysis (Bitcoin, May 4th, 2026)
Every retest of the 200 EMA band (0.25 sd) has resulted in a rejection since the Death Cross back in November.
And with volume steadily decreasing, that adds to the idea that a potentially strong bearish swing is just around the corner.
Additionally, there’s an argument to be made that Bitcoin is currently forming its 4th leg within an Elliott Wave 5-wave pattern, as the 4th leg typically takes the longest to form/consolidate. And that aligns with what we’re seeing on the charts, for now.
For full confirmation, the rising channel’s low at around $70,000 would have to be broken; but aggressive traders may use this 200 EMA band (0.25 sd) as a reference to consider swing-short setup.
Weekly Chart Analysis (Bitcoin, May 4th, 2026)
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is clearly running into a resistance zone marked by its weekly low from ~$75K to ~85.7K.
Coincidentally, the midline and edges of this zone align almost perfectly with:
- The exact November 2025 lows at $80,537 – align with midline or Consequent Encroachment zone (50%)
- The weekly 50-EMA, which has provided accurate pivot points, is now at $85,748
These confluences align with our bearish view on the daily timeframe.
On-Chain Analytics Suggest a Bitcoin Low Isn’t In (Yet)
Even by on-chain analytics, Bitcoin’s NUPL (Net Unrealised Profit-Loss) chart is indicating that a bottom isn’t in. According to this chart, Bitcoin must reach its capitulation zone, where most Bitcoin holders are in losses rather than in profit, before a bottom is found.
If you are considering a short position on Bitcoin, note that this analysis is based on higher timeframes.
Therefore, it’s specific, but not precise. That means even though Bitcoin has already tested a key resistance at $80,537, there is still a chance it can push higher into $85K. Especially if this Tuesday’s AI earnings from AMD, Navitas, and Super Micro pulls through.
In that scenario, peak euphoria could kick in and produce an even more devastating collapse.
Of course, that is only if Bitcoin doesn’t just shoot past its weekly 50 EMA and successfully bounce off it on a retest. But we’ll cross that bridge once we get there.
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Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Trading comes with substantial risk, leading to possible loss of your capital. Traders are advised to do their own due diligence before investing.