BTC has completed a Bear → Range → Bull transition on the daily timeframe.
The Bear regime ran through most of March, with trend, momentum, and directional strength all aligned to the downside. Late March saw ADX drop below threshold as selling pressure exhausted — the market shifted to Range.
Range held for roughly two weeks through early April. No dominant trend, conflicting signals, low conviction. Breakout strategies would have been chopped up here.
On 21 April, trend score flipped to full positive alignment (+2.5) – EMAs stacked bullish, RSI confirming buyer control, DI+ leading DI-. The regime shifted to Bull.
What this means for positioning:
– Trend-following and breakout setups have a structural edge
– Mean-reversion setups lose their edge
– The regime has held for 5 bars — still early, watching for
continuation above 79K to confirm durability
This analysis uses my Bitcoin Market Regime Detector indicator (open-source, linked on my profile). The indicator classifies BTC into Bull, Bear, or Range using a composite scoring system built on EMA crossover, ADX trend strength, RSI momentum, and directional index.
Not financial advice. Regime classification is a framework for strategy selection, not a standalone signal.