- BTC holds steady at 67k
- Concerns remain over an escalation in Iran
- US non-farm payroll data is expected to show 60k jobs added
- NFP surprises could feed into crypto as Global exchanges are closed for Good Friday
- BTC technical analysis
is holding steady around $67K after two days of losses, as risk assets remain under pressure amid growing concerns over an escalation in the war with Iran.
Earlier in the week, in an address to the nation, President Trump said the Middle East conflict could continue for another two to three weeks and warned that Iran would be hit “extremely hard” in the coming weeks if a deal is not reached.
Trump also reiterated threats against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure, while pressure continues to build for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened.
In a potentially significant development, the UN is expected to vote later today on a resolution aimed at securing passage through the Strait of Hormuz using defensive force.
Oil and Inflation Worries Persist
settled at $111 per barrel on Thursday, up 11% (the market is closed on Friday), reinforcing inflation concerns and supporting the view that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates higher for longer.
Higher oil prices increase inflation expectations, which can push Treasury yields higher and reduce the likelihood of Fed easing. That tends to be a headwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets, which usually perform better in lower-rate environments due to increased liquidity.
What to Expect from Today’s NFP Report
Attention is now turning to the US report later today. Markets expect 60,000 jobs to have been added in March after 92,000 jobs were lost in February, while the is expected to hold steady at 4.4%. Expectations are essentially for a return to a more “normal” labour market report, characterised by a low hiring, low firing environment rather than outright deterioration.
That matters because a resilient labour market, combined with that remains above the Fed’s 2% target, strengthens the case for rates staying higher for longer. Traders have priced out any additional this year.
Why Today’s NFP Report Matter More for Crypto
The NFP report comes on Good Friday, when most global exchanges are closed. Most FX markets will also operate on an abbreviated session, while crypto will continue to trade as normal given its 24/7 structure.
That means any surprise in payrolls could feed more directly into Bitcoin and parts of the FX market than usual, simply because many other major asset classes will be shut.
Still, while today’s jobs report matters, developments in Iran — and their impact on oil and inflation expectations — are likely to remain the bigger driver for Bitcoin and broader risk sentiment in the near term.
BTC Technical Analysis
Bitcoin trades in a longer-term downtrend, below its falling trend line dating back to early October and its 200 SMA. The price recovered from the 2026 low of 60k, rising to a March high of 76k in a potential bear flag pattern. The price rebounded lower from 76k, breaking below the 50 SMA and the lower band of the channel to 65k support. A recent rejection of the 50 SMA resistance reinforces the bearish bias.
Sellers will need to break below 65k to open the door to a deeper selloff towards 60k.
Any recovery would need to rise above 69k, the 50 SMA, and the lower band of the rising channel. Above here, 76k comes into focus: the March high, the 23.6% Fib retracement of the 126.6k high and the 60k low, and the falling trendline. A rise above here creates a higher high, bringing 80k into focus and invalidating the bear flag pattern.
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