Hello everyone,
On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is showing more constructive signals after a prolonged period of weakness. Price has rebounded strongly from the 1.145 area, and more importantly, the recent breakout has pushed it above both EMA 34 (red) and EMA 89 (blue), indicating that the short-term structure is shifting toward a bullish phase.
Momentum is being reinforced as EMA 34 has crossed above EMA 89, with both moving averages starting to slope upward. This reflects a clear return of buying pressure, in contrast to the previous phase where price was consistently suppressed below these dynamic levels.
However, as price approaches the 1.170–1.175 zone, the market is beginning to show signs of hesitation. The bullish candles are losing momentum, and upper wicks are appearing more frequently—suggesting that selling pressure is reacting within this short-term resistance area. Notably, this zone also aligns with a prior supply region.
In the current context, this creates a familiar dilemma: is this a genuine trend reversal, or simply a pullback within a broader downtrend?
A reasonable scenario is that price may consolidate or even retrace slightly to retest the 1.162–1.165 zone, where the EMAs are now converging. If buyers step in and defend this area, the bullish structure could remain intact and set the stage for another attempt to break above 1.175. On the other hand, a failure to hold above the EMAs would suggest that this move was merely a corrective rally, with downside pressure potentially returning.
At this stage, the structure is improving—but confirmation will depend on whether the market can maintain acceptance above the moving averages.