
The earlier long thesis is invalid because the daily setup was not equivalent. Those 2 candles were not the same, and after that candle we got an inside bar, which changed the context into compression rather than a direct reversal setup.
On the 4H, we can see the third failed breakout attempt inside the triangle. In the context of a mature broad bull channel, where we are already in a 3rd push phase both up and down, that increases the probability of a trading range or a bearish second leg rather than clean bullish continuation.
On the 15m, the failure becomes clearer in detail: bulls failed twice to take control, then formed a bear flag, and then we got the bear breakout.
So the market has shifted from a ābuy support in a broad bull channelā idea to a ārespect the failed bullish structure and expect either a trading range or a second leg downā idea.
That opens the door for a measured move lower, with 67.6k and 66.8k as nearer magnets, and 63.5k as the larger downside objective.
