Structure at a Glance
Bias: BEARISH Ā· VWAP Dev: ā2.4% Ā· Price: $70,200 ā now $68,512
The chart shows the full structural picture from mid-January through today. The falling AVWAP (purple line) tells the complete story ā it has been resetting lower for nearly two months without a single sustained reclaim. That is not a dip. That is a distribution phase that has not yet completed.
The Volume Profile
The volume profile on the left is the most important feature of this chart. The Point of Control (POC) ā where the most volume has traded ā sits in the $73,000ā$74,000 zone, which is the golden/brown band visible across the chart. This is institutional cost basis. Current price at $68,512 is trading approximately $5,000 below where the majority of BTC volume was transacted. Institutions are underwater on positions built in that zone, which creates a natural supply ceiling on any rally.
The $68,000ā$68,500 horizontal zone (red line) is the critical level today. It has acted as support three separate times since late February ā on the initial flush to $67,000, on the mid-March test, and now again as price sits on it at $68,512. Three tests of the same support level without a meaningful bounce is distribution, not accumulation.
The AVWAP
The falling purple AVWAP curve is the regime filter. Price has been below it continuously since early February. Every attempted rally into the $70,000ā$71,000 zone has been rejected ā including the recent bounce to $75,500 in mid-March which was the most powerful rally of the bear swing and still failed to hold above AVWAP.
The AVWAP is now sitting at approximately $70,200 ā visible as the current price label on the right before the latest drop to $68,512. A close and hold above $70,200 AVWAP is the minimum condition for any regime consideration. Without it, every bounce is a selling opportunity, not a buying opportunity.
Three tests of $68,000ā$68,500 without a structural bounce is a warning. The volume profile shows thin participation below $68,000 ā there is not much institutional absorption at these levels. If $68,512 breaks on volume, there is limited structural support until $66,000, and the path to the February low at $63,500 opens.
The bull case requires a close above $70,200 AVWAP with two to three confirming bars. That would be the first structural signal that the selling pressure is exhausting. Without that, the regime is BEARISH and the framework posture is the same as it has been for two months: sell rallies into AVWAP, do not buy dips.
VWAP Dev at ā2.4% against a falling AVWAP is not a modest discount. It means institutions are continuing to reset their cost basis lower every session. That is not accumulation. That is distribution in progress.
Regime first. The regime is BEARISH until the AVWAP reclaim. Price is in the third test of critical support in a FULL RISK-OFF macro environment. Manage risk accordingly.
Cantillon Research Ā· IVT Institutional Volume Analysis
Educational content only. Not financial advice.