The BTC / Gold ratio (BTCUSD/XAUUSD) has been a cornerstone of our long-term research. As you can see the symmetry between its Bear Cycles is astonishing. Each Bear Cycle since 2014 has lasted for exactly 396 days. And last month, it completed again 396 days from the January 2025 High. No to this symmetry’s surprise, March is so far on a strong green 1M candle.
So based on the ratio’s cyclical behavior, we may have a bottom, meaning that it may be time to rotate some of Gold’s massive profits into Bitcoin, which has dropped by more than -50% already from its All Time High (ATH). To avoid confusion, it doesn’t mean that both BTC and Gold can’t decline at the same time, it just implies that it may be time for Bitcoin to drop at a lower rate than Gold. Which isn’t unreasonable given that Bitcoin has been within a Bear Cycle for 6 months already (and will gradually start being a bargain long-term), while Gold may have just started it’s own Bear Cycle.
The 1M CCI seems to agree with that potential Cycle bottom as it hit and rebounded on the Lower Lows trend-line that goes back to 2015. The Time Cycles help at identifying all prior bottoms. In addition to that, the ratio just formed a 1D MA200 (black trend-line) / 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) Bearish Cross, which last time it was formed (November 2022) it was right at the bottom of the previous Bear Cycle.
So time to dump Gold and buy Bitcoin??
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