The CHF/JPY pair has remained bullish over the past several months, with a clearly defined upward trend in which the 200 EMA and the 30-period weighted moving average have continued to guide direction. Although the Bank of Japan is currently leaning hawkish, weakness in both PMI and CPI has created uncertainty and a mixed backdrop, leading to an interesting trading range since February 9.
MacroQuantiva has given us the bias that, despite these nuances, institutional positioning has started to strengthen again while retail traders remain short. The current narrative is that, despite the noise, if the market is able to break the weekly POC, a bearish scenario could be favored. Without that break, what we have observed instead is tactical manipulation around prior liquidity levels to reposition and make another attempt at fresh highs, as price has already tried to do three times over the last 90 days.
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