The broader view for the index from the 2008 low remains bullish, as price action holds above the 96 mark and the lower bound of the respected 18-year channel. A possible double bottom formation can be seen extending on the chart between the lows of June 2025 and January 2026, testing the 100.50 neckline.
Bullish scenario:
Closing back above 99.50 and 100.50 exposes the index to a bullish breakout towards the 101.80 and 104.40 marks, completing a double bottom reversal target. This scenario would likely coincide with Middle East conflict escalations, leading to further disruptions in oil supply routes and facilities, contributing to higher inflation risks and more hawkish rate policies.
Bearish scenario:
Closing back below the 98.80 mark extends bearish forecasts down towards the 98.50 and 98 marks for a potential bullish hold. If not, a deeper retracement exposes the index to another test of the channel’s borders near the 96 zone, reinforcing either another bullish rebound or a long-term bearish breakout. This scenario would likely coincide with US–Middle East conflict de-escalation and oil price unwinds.