Silver (XAGUSD) rallied to $121.6 on January 29 before entering a sharp decline that reached $60.87. We identified that decline as wave (IV) in the Super Cycle degree, and the broader structure continues to support a constructive long‑term outlook. The metal has begun to recover from the wave (IV) low, and the next important test is a break above the wave (III) all‑time high at $121.6. A clean break would remove the risk of a double correction and confirm that a new cycle is underway.
From the wave (IV) low, wave 1 formed a leading diagonal and finished at $77.63. Wave 2 then retraced to $72.57 before the metal turned higher again in wave 3. The current structure suggests that one more push is needed to complete wave 3. After that advance, a wave 4 pullback should develop to correct the cycle from the April 13, 2026 low. A final rise in wave 5 would then complete wave (1) at the higher degree.
Once wave (1) ends, a broader wave (2) decline should unfold to correct the entire advance from the March 23, 2026 wave (IV) low. That retracement will set the base for the next sustained bullish phase. In the near term, the $60.87 pivot remains the key support. As long as it holds, any pullback should attract buyers in a three‑ or seven‑swing sequence. The next upside objective aligns with the 100% Fibonacci extension of wave 1 at $89.