EUR/USD is currently clearly leaning toward a short-term BEARISH trend, as both recent news and the technical structure fail to support a sustainable bullish move.
From a news perspective, the euro is under pressure due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and a resilient U.S. dollar, while the ECB maintains a cautious stance with no immediate plans for rate adjustments. This has made short-term capital more cautious toward the euro, which is highly sensitive to USD strength and global risk sentiment. When safe-haven demand is strong for the USD and there is no fresh catalyst supporting EUR, rallies in EUR/USD are more likely to be viewed as selling opportunities.
On the H4 timeframe, the bearish structure remains firmly intact. Price is still below the descending trendline and moving within a downward channel, confirming that sellers continue to control the market. Recent rebounds have only produced lower highs, highlighting weak buying pressure and a lack of follow-through.
The 1.1600–1.1620 zone is acting as a key resistance area, where the descending trendline converges with prior swing highs. Repeated rejection from this zone would further reinforce the bearish scenario. If EUR/USD fails to break and hold above this resistance, the probability strongly favors a renewed move lower, with an initial target near 1.1450, followed by a deeper extension toward 1.1400, as highlighted on the chart.
In summary, EUR/USD is currently in a technical rebound within a larger downtrend. The most sensible approach at this stage is to prioritize SELL setups on rallies, patiently waiting for price-action confirmation, rather than attempting to catch a bottom while the dominant trend remains unfavorable for buyers.