The pound is trading against the dollar near 1.35050–1.35150, but the external backdrop is not yet giving sterling enough room for a confident continuation of the rise. The US currency remains in demand amid uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East and after strong US consumer spending data. For GBP/USD, this means that even if the pound stays relatively stable, pressure from the dollar is still present.
Fresh UK labour market data also added to the cautious mood around sterling. Wage growth slowed to 3.6%, while the decline in unemployment to 4.9% was partly linked to a rise in economic inactivity rather than a clear expansion in employment. This combination reduces market confidence in the sustainability of domestic demand.
Today, market participants are waiting for the release of March inflation data in the United Kingdom. Before that report is published, the pound is unlikely to receive strong domestic support, especially as the Reuters poll showed expectations that the Bank of England will keep its rate at 3.75% through the end of the year. With growth slowing and energy costs still elevated, the preferred scenario for GBP/USD in today’s session remains the downside.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.35100, SL 1.35400, TP 1.34200