Event to watch today:
14:30 EET. USD – Unemployment Claims
EURUSD:
EUR/USD is holding near 1.15600–1.15700 on Thursday, but the fundamental backdrop remains unfavorable for the euro. The US dollar continues to find support amid stronger demand for safe-haven assets and a reassessment of expectations regarding US monetary policy. The market still allows for the possibility that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged for longer if inflation does not slow more convincingly. This continues to support the dollar even during local corrections.
On the eurozone side, the single currency is receiving only limited support. European Central Bank officials допускают a firmer response if inflationary pressure intensifies due to rising energy prices. However, the baseline scenario for interest rates in the eurozone remains restrained, while the region’s economy remains vulnerable to external risks. Additional pressure on the euro comes from worsening consumer sentiment and concerns about the impact of expensive energy on business activity.
At the same time, the US economy continues to show signs of resilience, and recent price data have strengthened concerns that inflation may remain elevated for longer than expected. For the foreign exchange market, this means continued demand for the dollar as the stronger side in the current macroeconomic balance. Under these conditions, the baseline scenario for today remains further downside in EUR/USD from current levels.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.15650, SL 1.15950, TP 1.14750