GBP/USD Bullish Setup: Identifying the TM Liquidity Trap & Smart

Fundamental Context:
Earlier today, the UK Construction PMI data came in significantly weaker than expected (39.7 vs 45.8 forecast). While this aggressive contraction in the construction sector creates fundamental selling pressure on the British Pound, the underlying market structure and order flow suggest a different narrative.

4H Timeframe Analysis (Market Structure):
Currently, GBP/USD is printing a standard bullish candle (approx. 33 pips, fitting within the 80-120% range of the current 37 ATR). The price initiated its bullish momentum from a “Daily Phases 02” zone and successfully fractured the 4H Phase 02 level.
Looking at the broader context, the bullish “Spike & Base” structure from last Thursday remains entirely valid. Price retraced towards the Base Pole but failed to engulf it. Therefore, the bullish order flow is intact as long as the ascending green support trendline holds.

We are currently approaching the FTC (Failure To Continue) zone of a newly confirmed 4H pivot. Retail logic dictates shorting this supply zone, but here is why we maintain a bullish bias:

15M Timeframe Analysis (Trigger & Entry Logic):
Zooming into the 15M chart around the recent 4H pivot, we observe the formation of the right shoulder of a structural pattern. At first glance, the retail eye will classify this as a bearish Quasimodo (QM) pattern.
However, upon closer inspection, the lower boundary has clearly penetrated the origin of the left shoulder. In our CyberTrading methodology, this invalidates the QM and confirms a TM (Trick/Manipulation) pattern.

This TM pattern is essentially a bearish fakeout—a liquidity trap designed to induce early shorts and engineer the necessary sell-side liquidity (fuel) for the next impulsive leg up.

The Setup (Action Plan):
We are avoiding direct shorts at the current FTC. The high-probability setup is to wait for a bearish pullback from this FTC (the fakeout phase) to buy at a discount.

Target (TP): The primary liquidity draw is the Phase 01 zone, located between 1.36705 and 1.36946.

Invalidation Criteria (Risk Management):
This bullish scenario is completely invalidated if any of the following occur:

Price breaks and closes back below the 1.36009 level (Phase 02 breakdown).

Price reaches the red diagonal liquidity resistance and prints a valid bearish confirmation on the 15M or 1H timeframe.

Price pushes slightly above the red zone but fails to exceed the 8-pip engulfing threshold, confirming a fake breakout to the upside.

Note: Be highly mindful of the EUR/USD correlation today. Our current outlook on EUR/USD is bearish, and if GBP/USD triggers any of the invalidation criteria above, it will likely sync with the Euro’s bearish order flow.