What recent news has influenced gold prices? How should we assess the future direction of gold?
US President Donald Trump stated that Iran has offered a “gift” to demonstrate its goodwill in negotiations, saying it relates to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. China urged Iran to engage in dialogue with the US, and the US and regional mediators are pushing for the possibility of high-level talks as early as Thursday. Influenced by signals that the US may seek a diplomatic end to the Middle East war, investors reassessed the situation, and gold extended its gains after ending a nine-day losing streak. Oil prices fell, stocks rose, and the dollar index fell as much as 0.3%. Since the outbreak of the war more than three weeks ago, gold’s movements have largely moved in tandem with stocks and inversely with crude oil. High energy prices have increased inflation risks, prompting investors to bet that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will keep interest rates unchanged or even raise them further. This puts pressure on non-interest-bearing assets. The decline in global stocks and bonds in recent weeks has also forced investors to sell gold positions to raise cash, further amplifying the decline in gold prices.
Gold Price Trend Analysis:
The 4-hour MACD has formed a golden cross, and the moving averages are in a short-term bullish alignment, further supporting the rebound. The bottoming pattern on the H4 timeframe is even clearer, with a bottom at 4100 and a secondary bottom at 4300. Although the rise was driven by market news, the chart pattern has already completed the foundation for an upward structure. The moving averages are converging and then diverging upwards, indicating a shift towards a bullish medium-term trend. Therefore, based on the current development, gold could reach the upper Bollinger Band high around 4750 this week. Thus, considering all factors, the 4100 bottom mentioned on Tuesday needs further confirmation, but gold can be gradually pushed higher. By Wednesday, the 4100 bottom can be considered confirmed, and gold should be firmly targeted for an upward move, with a target of 4750 this week. For today’s trading, use 4500 as a stop-loss level for a bullish outlook, awaiting the strength of the medium-term trend reversal. In summary, today’s short-term trading strategy for gold is to primarily buy on dips and secondarily sell on rallies. Key resistance levels to watch are 4735-4750, and key support levels are 4500-4510. Please follow the trading rhythm closely.