Gold Market Analysis and Trading Strategy

The United States and Israel have launched airstrikes on key facilities such as Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant and military command centers. Ceasefire mediation between the two sides has completely broken down, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is fully blocked, and global energy and financial markets have fallen into severe turmoil. For gold, this conflict is breaking the traditional logic of “unilateral safe-haven rallies,” showing a deep game among three forces: geopolitical safe-haven support, U.S. dollar interest rate pressure, and liquidity squeeze.
Comprehensive Upgrade of Military Strikes, Reaching High-Risk Red Lines
On Iran’s side, multiple waves of saturation counterattacks have been launched continuously, targeting not only U.S. military bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates but also energy targets such as Israel’s Haifa oil refinery and petrochemical facilities in the UAE. The strikes on April 4–5 have caused dozens of casualties among U.S. troops. The U.S. and Israel have broken through traditional military boundaries and carried out airstrikes on Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. The two sides have engaged in ground combat for the first time, with U.S. special forces confronting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps head-on. The conflict has spread from air strikes to ground operations, and the risk of full-scale war has risen sharply.
Global Energy Channel Blocked, Inflation Crisis Erupts
As the core channel for 20% of global oil trade, the Strait of Hormuz is now largely paralyzed, with about 15 million barrels of crude oil transportation blocked daily. Brent crude oil has soared to $115, a surge of over 60% compared to pre-conflict levels, and global inflation expectations have reversed instantly. Markets worry that high oil prices will continue to push up inflation; the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June has plummeted to 2%, and expectations of a resumption of rate hikes have even emerged. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply, forming a double suppression on gold.
For investors, three key signals need close attention: whether the U.S. and Israel expand their strike range, whether the Strait of Hormuz is fully blockaded, and the Fed’s latest statements on inflation and interest rates. Operationally, a “range trading + follow-through on breakout” strategy can be adopted:
• When gold pulls back to the support zone of $4,550–$4,600, light long positions can be established, with a stop loss below $4,500 and targets at $4,700–$4,750.
• If gold effectively breaks above the resistance level of $4,750, confirming an escalation of the conflict, additional long positions can be added, targeting $4,800–$4,900.
• If the situation eases and gold falls below $4,550, exit with a timely stop loss and switch