Price is currently compressing within a tight structure, but rising US–Iran tensions are adding external pressure that can override technical setups. This creates uncertainty, where structure can shift rapidly on news catalysts.
The 4,840–4,860 supply zone remains key; any escalation could drive safe-haven demand and force a breakout above this level. However, a strong dollar reaction may still cap upside unless momentum confirms.
On the downside, if tensions ease or markets turn risk-on, gold may lose support and revisit the 4,790–4,770 demand zone. Liquidity below remains vulnerable in case of sudden sentiment shifts.
Overall, this is a news-driven market inside a technical range, and the breakout direction will depend more on geopolitical developments than pure chart structure.