Helo Fellow Traders. I’m currently looking at a setup on Gold. Please tell me your thoughts.
Set-up: Short
HTF: Monthly – Bullish / Weekly- Bearish / Daily Bearish with current candle bullish.
LTF: Bearish, 1 Hr counter trend bullish.
Entry rules: Waiting for price to reach the double top retrace of $4589-$4570. Once price is between that zone reversal pattern needs to form and wait for a breakout from the pattern. We then seek the next fractal on a lower timeframe.
TP: $4511.5
SL: Not yet applicable as the setup has not formed the first stage.
RR: 1-5
Management and Invalidation: Failure to form a reversal pattern / break above previous high on daily TF.
Upcoming data releases and impact rating:
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.7 9 ±$32.00.
US JOLTS Job Openings 8.8M 7 ±$18.00.
US Trade Balance (Mar) -$61.0B 6 ±$12.00.
FOMC Member Bowman Speaks Hawkish 8 High
Geopolitical environment: US-Iran Fragile Ceasefire Bearish, The Pakistan-brokered 2-week truce is viewed with skepticism; breach would lead to immediate flight-to-quality rally.
Fundamental and macro drivers: The gold macro regime in May 2026 is defined by the intersection of maritime warfare, central bank diversification, and a fundamental transition in US monetary leadership. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a corridor carrying 20% of global oil—has triggered a broad repricing across the commodity complex. For gold, this is a double-edged sword: while geopolitical risk and inflation expectations provide a “safe-haven” bid, the resulting “Higher-for-Longer” interest rate stance from the Federal Reserve increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.