GOOGL is no longer flirting with the 382.57-382.97 monthly zone. It already gave us an LBAF there last week at the “got ya” spot, and instead of doing something productive with it, price rolled back over and closed Friday around 380.57. That matters, because once you get a failed move lower at a level and still end up back underneath it, the next test of that area gets downgraded unless buyers come back with real acceptance instead of a little sympathy bounce.
The bigger picture is still the same. The orange box runs from 365.89 to 408.61. Inside that, the inner red box runs from 382.57 to 397.99, with the midpoint at 390.42. Right now price is trading below the bottom of that red box, which means bulls are on probation until they can reclaim something meaningful. One thing I’ll be watching closely is whether price starts trading sideways with time and volume around these key levels. If it starts building a base above a reclaimed level or a ceiling below a lost one, that gives us much better information than a single wick and a prayer. Persistent failure matters too. If price keeps failing to reclaim a level, that is a clue. If it keeps failing to stay below support, that is a clue too. The market usually starts snitching before the move fully gets going.
Bullish case:
Bulls need to defend 379.81-379.04 and give a real LBAF there, not some dusty little bounce that folds the second sellers lean on it. First things first, they need to reclaim 380.57-380.66. After that, the real test is getting back above 382.57 and then reclaiming the full 382.57-382.97 monthly zone. Since we already got one LBAF higher last week, another one in that same area is worth less unless buyers can actually hold the reclaim and start building time and volume above it. If they can do that, then upside targets are 384.88, 385.66, 387.30, and maybe 390.42 if the market stops acting like it was raised in a barn. This is also where the bullish swing may setup. A local LBAF in 379.81-379.04 is tradable for a rotation long, but the bigger swing call idea comes from a deeper flush into the bottom of the orange box at 365.89 followed by a real LBAF and reclaim. Big boxes make big profit, and if price starts building a real base there, that is the kind of edge where the R:R gets disrespectful in a good way. Buyers still have to earn it though.
Bearish case:
Bears want any bounce into 380.66, 382.57, or the full 382.57-382.97 zone to fail. If price looks back into that monthly area and gets smacked back down, that is the cleaner short because it tells us the old support is turning into supply. If price starts chopping sideways under that zone and building time and volume there, even better for the bears, because that starts looking like a ceiling instead of just a one-off rejection. Then I’m watching for continuation into 379.81 and 379.04. If 379.04 breaks and cannot be reclaimed, this starts looking less like a local flush and more like the higher timeframe breakdown we were worried about all along. That is also where the bearish swing setup comes in. If GOOGL reclaims toward the bottom of the red box and gets rejected, or if it simply keeps persistently failing to reclaim that 382.57-382.97 monthly zone, that can justify swinging puts because buyers had their chance and still couldn’t get back into value. And if we start closing below those real levels, the odds go up that the next open and the next few sessions keep leaning that way.
So the read is pretty straightforward:
Above 382.57-382.97 with acceptance, bulls finally have a case again.
Below that zone, rallies are suspicious until proven otherwise.
Hold 379.81-379.04 and reclaim, and bulls may still squeeze this back into value.
Lose 379.04 and fail to reclaim, and the chart gets uglier fast.
No need to overcomplicate it. The market has already shown us one failed move at the monthly zone. Now it needs to prove whether that was just a warning shot or the first crack in the floor.
This is not financial advice, I’m just a guy with an interest and a Celsius addiction.