XAUUSD is trading around 4,455 after a sharp bearish displacement from the 4,600 area. The decline broke through the first two demand layers and has now reached the major demand + OB + POI, making this the key H1 decision area for a potential recovery.
The macro backdrop turned strongly negative for gold after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Warsh emphasized that inflation remains too high and that the Fed must be confident inflation is moving back toward 2%, pushing markets to raise expectations for another rate hike. The dollar strengthened and short-term Treasury yields rose, while gold fell more than 3%.
July core PCE also remains elevated at 3.3% YoY, keeping the inflation problem firmly in focus. However, Treasury efforts to manage long-term yields and lower oil prices could provide some counterbalance if rate expectations cool again.
Technical View
The H1 structure has shifted sharply bearish in the short term after price failed beneath the descending trendline and accelerated through the 4,580–4,600 demand zone.
The selloff also cleared the 4,500–4,520 intermediate demand, bringing price directly into the 4,445–4,470 major demand + OB + POI.
This is the main area where I would watch for a bullish recovery rather than chase the bearish displacement.
If buyers defend this zone and produce a bullish CHoCH/MSS, the first recovery objective sits around 4,500–4,520.
Acceptance above that level could extend the rebound toward 4,580–4,600, while a stronger structural recovery would reopen the 4,675–4,697 premium supply / buy-side liquidity.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,454.990
Major Demand + OB + POI: 4,445–4,470
Intermediate Demand: 4,500–4,520
Demand Zone: 4,580–4,600
Premium Supply / BSL: 4,675–4,697
Major Swing High / BSL: 4,697.533
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: 4,445–4,470
Condition: wait for a liquidity sweep into major demand followed by bullish rejection, CHoCH/MSS or clear reclaim confirmation.
TP1: 4,500–4,520
TP2: 4,580–4,600
TP3: 4,675–4,697
Important Note
The current H1 momentum is still bearish, so the demand zone alone is not enough confirmation.
Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message has materially changed the short-term macro environment for gold. Avoid trying to catch the low without evidence that sellers are losing control.
Final View
Gold has completed a strong bearish repricing and is now testing one of the most important H1 demand areas on the chart.
The preferred scenario is not to chase the selloff, but to watch 4,445–4,470 for confirmed buyer response. If demand holds, a recovery toward 4,520 and eventually 4,580–4,600 becomes possible.
Will major demand absorb the Jackson Hole selloff and trigger the next H1 recovery?