Time to zoom out and take a full top-down approach on Bitcoin. While the intraday charts are showing some bearish pressure, the higher timeframes are painting a massive macro bottoming structure.
Just like we analyzed Gold and Oil, we are currently at a major decision point. Let’s break down the macro narrative, the mid-term structure, and the intraday trigger.
📜 1. The Macro Narrative (Weekly)
Bitcoin is firmly in a macro uptrend. On the Weekly chart, we have a confirmed “Bump and run reversal bottom complete.”
The Structure: After the heavy correction that broke structure (BOS) down, price swept liquidity and printed a massive Change of Character (CHoCH) up.
The Patterns: We are currently forming a macro “Ascending broadening wedge” on the Monthly, which usually resolves in a volatile continuation.
The Wall: Our major macro resistance sits at the Weekly Bearish Order Block around 98,049.21.
📊 2. The Mid-Term Structure (Daily)
The Daily chart confirms the bullish macro bias with a classic continuation pattern:
Pattern: A valid “Cup with handle” is forming. This is a highly bullish continuation setup.
Structure: We saw a clear CHoCH up, and price is currently pulling back to retest the Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) left behind by the impulsive move.
The Floor: Major Daily support sits at 67,068.27, with a Bullish Order Block sitting below that to catch any deep macro pullbacks.
⚔️ 3. The Intraday Trigger (H4)
This is where the conflict lies. On the H4 chart, we have a valid Head and Shoulders Top pattern.
Price broke structure (BOS) to the downside, shifting character (CHoCH) down, confirming the H4 bearish trend.
We are currently trading around 83,407, sitting right between yesterday’s edges: D1 previous day high at 84,245.88 above, and previous day low at 81,696.91 below.
We have an unfilled FVG above (around 85k) and partly filled FVGs below (around 78k).
🎯 The Trade Thesis & Scenarios
We are at a classic “conflict” point. The HTF (Weekly/Daily) is aggressively bullish, but the LTF (H4) is aggressively bearish.
Scenario A (Bullish Continuation): For the bulls to take control, we need to see a strong H4 close above the previous day’s high (84,245) and a break of the H4 Bearish Order Block. If we reclaim structure, the path of least resistance is up to fill the unfilled FVG at 85,000, with a macro target of 98,000.
Scenario B (Bearish Rejection): If the H4 Head and Shoulders plays out, look for a break below the 80,335 support level (which has been touched 3 times). In this case, I would wait for a deeper pullback into the H4 FVG at 78,000 or the Daily Bullish Order Block at 67,000 to look for the next long entry.
Key Levels to Watch:
Current Price: ~83,407
Immediate Resistance: 84,245 (Previous Day High) / 87,044 (4 touches)
Major Macro Target: 98,049 (Weekly Bearish OB)
Immediate Support: 80,335 (3 touches)
Macro Support: 67,068 (Daily Support)
The Weekly is bullish, the Daily is bullish, but the H4 is forming a bearish reversal. Are you buying the dip or shorting the Head and Shoulders breakdown? Let me know in the comments! 👇