The iShares Bitcoin ETF () accounted for the majority of the $1.26Bn in US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows from May 18–22, 2026, moving around 13,000 (about $1.01Bn) from its custody addresses over five days.
This divestment came as Bitcoin struggled to hold $70,000, dipping to $67,000–$68,000. Earlier in January 2026, BlackRock deposited 1,134 BTC (around $101.4M) and 7,255 ETH (approximately $22.1M) with Binance, following late-2025 transfers to Coinbase.
The ongoing outflows are not driven by Bitcoin’s merits but by the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer stance, which has raised Treasury yields and prompted institutional de-risking from non-yielding assets.
This macro environment has evolved over the past year, with rising US inflation pushing markets to adjust expectations for Fed easing and negatively impacting Bitcoin and other long-duration assets. IBIT’s outflows are closely aligned with macro data releases rather than crypto-specific factors.
The Transmission Channel: How Rising Treasury Yields Reach Bitcoin’s Order Book Through the Rate-Discount Mechanism
Rising Treasury yields impact Bitcoin prices through two main channels. First, as the risk-free rate increases, the present value of non-cash-flow assets like Bitcoin falls, raising the hurdles for speculative investment.
Second, a stronger dollar () tightens global liquidity, pressuring dollar-denominated assets such as Bitcoin.
Currently, both channels are active. The hit 5.197% in May 2026, the highest since 2007, while the hovered around 4.6%, surpassing its long-term average.
At these levels, Treasuries offer real returns that compete with high-risk, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, especially after BTC’s previous all-time highs.
In 2022, as the 10-year yield rose from 1.5% to over 4.2%, Bitcoin plummeted from about $47,000 to under $16,000, coinciding with the Fed’s aggressive tightening.
Blackrock Crypto: IBIT and the Structural Weight of $1.26Bn in Cross-Fund Outflows: The Macro Fingerprint
The situation with IBIT extends beyond just BlackRock, highlighting cross-fund alignment. During the week of May 18–22, US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows totaled around $1.26Bn, indicating a broader market trend rather than issues specific to a single fund.
IBIT’s cumulative AUM remains over $20Bn, meaning the May outflow represented less than 5% of its assets, significant but not a liquidation event.
The notable trading volume of over $10Bn on a day of price decline suggests large holders exited due to macro risk, not Bitcoin’s fundamentals.
Redemptions have exceeded $175M on days of volatile macro data, confirming that IBIT’s investors are primarily macro-aware institutions treating it as a high-beta position rather than a long-term holding.
$70,000 as the Pivot Level: What the Next CPI Print and FOMC Decision Would Mean for IBIT Flows and Bitcoin’s Directional Move
Three scenarios shape the outlook for Bitcoin. In the bull case, if core inflation decelerates with CPI at or below 2.8% year-over-year, markets might anticipate Fed cuts, leading to a potential recovery for Bitcoin toward $75,000–$77,000. The key would be reclaiming the $70,000 level on strong volume.
In the bear case, if inflation remains above 3% and the Fed maintains rates through year-end, with Treasury yields near 5%, Bitcoin’s $64,000 support level could be tested. This scenario may lead to continued selling pressures as institutions de-risk.
The base case suggests a cautious holding pattern, with Bitcoin fluctuating between $65,000 and $72,000 as traders await clear macro signals. Key upcoming data points, CPI, PCE, and FOMC communications, will influence the market’s direction for the rest of 2026.
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