MRVL | 4H Technical Analysis — Aug 31, 2026
Marvell reported Q2 revenue up 37% YoY and guided for full-year revenue of approximately $18B, roughly 50% above last year and ahead of the $16.5B consensus. However, the stock fell 10.28% as investors had expected higher guidance following the recently announced Alphabet TPU partnership, and Marvell clarified the “significant impact” from that deal will only materialize after FY2029. Citi noted strong impressions from the implied 3-year revenue CAGR, forecasting 60% data center revenue growth in both 2027 and 2028. Morgan Stanley was more measured, calling it “a solid quarter but no near-term surprise.”
MRVL has been in a well-defined ascending channel since the July low near 160, recovering steadily from the June selloff that brought price down from the 330 cycle high. Price is currently trading around 217, with EMA21 (230.85) above EMA78 (223.44) in a bullish cross, both EMAs trending higher.
The recovery from 160 has been orderly, clearing 195, 220, and 255 before the post-earnings pullback brought price back toward the channel midpoint near the 220–230 area. The ascending channel has provided clean structure throughout August, with the lower boundary rising toward 215–220. Today’s 10.28% drop has pulled price back to the EMA cluster, a key test of whether the channel support holds.
RSI at 44.55 has reset from elevated levels toward neutral, sitting at the lowest reading since the channel began in mid-July.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 255 / 280 / 300 (channel upper boundary)
Support: 195 / 160 (July low)
Bear case: A close below EMA78 would signal the post-earnings selling is breaking the recovery structure. Loss of 195 would mark a more significant deterioration, reopening the path toward the 160 July low.
Bull case: A hold at the EMA cluster and channel lower boundary near 220–223 absorbs the earnings reaction and keeps the ascending channel intact. A recovery back above 255 would restore bullish momentum, with the 3-year CAGR narrative from Citi providing fundamental support for continuation toward 280 and the channel upper boundary at 300.
Bias is cautiously bullish — the ascending channel structure and EMA cross remain intact, and the fundamental picture of 60% data center growth through 2028 is compelling. But the near-term lack of a positive catalyst before FY2029 and the post-earnings gap down make the 220–223 support zone the critical line to hold.