*Key Levels
345 → Next major liquidity / demand zone
365–375 → Overhead supply / key reclaim level
*Macro Context
MSFT just broke down the 365–375 HTF value zone with a strong weekly bearish candle.
This isn’t random movement — it’s structure driven by macro headwinds.
Selling pressure remains persistent with no clear sign of exhaustion.
In this type of environment, price doesn’t stabilize mid-range — it seeks the next liquidity pocket.
*Structure
365–375 = Prior HTF value → now lost / flipped to supply
Current behavior = acceptance below value
No meaningful support until ~345
Bottoms don’t form randomly.
They form where liquidity + positioning + demand align — and we’re not there yet.
Scenarios
- Primary (Higher Probability)
Continued weakness → flush into 345
This is where buyers are most likely to step in
Ideal setup = fast selloff + sharp reaction (V-shape type response)
- Alternative (Worse Case)
Price rebounds into 365–375
Gets rejected at supply
Leads to slow grind lower over weeks/months
This is the most frustrating scenario — time decay, no clean entry, no momentum.
Plan
- Long-term buyers
Scale in at 345 and below
Or wait for clean reclaim above 375
- Short-term traders
Wait for:
345 rejection (confirmation of demand)
OR breakout above 375 + hold
No edge in the middle.
Final Note
I took a loss around 400 — part of the game.
This is why we follow structure, not bias.