Refining Margins Drive Gas Costs as Crack Spreads Reach ATH

📊 Crack spreads: Refining Margins Drive Gas Costs as Crack Spreads Reach ATH ⛽

📈 Strengths and Catalysts:
Refining margins drive gasoline costs rather than raw crude prices. 📈
Crack spreads are trading well above historical exceptional price levels since February. 🚀
Ongoing war with Iran continues to support high refining margins until year end. ⚠️

📈 The Pulse:
Gasoline costs reflect surging refining margins rather than crude oil prices. ⛽
Refining crack spreads have been trading at exceptional price levels since February. 📈
Margins recently reached an all time high at 69 dollars. 🚀
The initial upside target sits at 82 dollars. 🎯
A secondary target reaches 95 dollars if geopolitical conflict persists through year end. 🎯
Normalizing consumer gas prices requires refining margins to fall back below 40 dollars. 🟢
Cooling margins down to historical norms will take at least three months post war. ⏳

🧱 The Key Structural Boundaries
• Current Level: ATH at 69 dollars. 🚀
• Reversal Level: Below 40 dollars for normal price baseline. 🟢
• First Target: 82 dollars. 🎯
• Second Target: 95 dollars. 🎯
• Time Horizon: At least 3 months post conflict for margin relief. ⏳

🎯 Verdict:
Refining margins remain the key driver behind high pump prices. ⛽
Crack spreads target 82 dollars and 95 dollars while conflict continues. 🚀
Do you think refining margins can reach the 95 dollar target before year end? 💬

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