It’s been a while since I’ve posted an idea for NVDA. I’ve traded it a bunch since then, but I like to have something a little extra on my side if I’m going to post, and today I do.
I am an unabashed quant. I play the numbers more than I play the technicals, though my signals are technical-based. For those interested in some simple technicals, I’ll drop those first.
1) 6 month uptrend
2) 2 levels of support, 1 nearby shown on the chart
3) resting right on its 20d MA and above both its 50 and 200d MAs
Now for the fun part for me. Today is the second consecutive oversold signal for me. In the last 4 years, that has resulted in a win every time, with the longest holding period being 9 trading days. You have to go back to 2022 to find one that didn’t pay that fast – and if you remember 2022, NVDA was not alone in that drop. More than half of these trades paid in one day.
Also, in the last year, after 3 consecutive down days, the longest it has taken to get back to green is, you guessed it – also 9 trading days. The most common result? Also anticlimactic – 1 day.
There’s my case. I have never had a losing trade on NVDA. I suppose it could happen with this one, but I doubt it. It would have to go to zero for that to happen.
I will add and subtract tactically if the trade extends beyond day 1. Also, if I can get a 2% gain in the first day intraday, I will sell then and not look back. That would be an above average trade. Otherwise, any level above that .94% per day is fair game for me and I will close on the first profitable close, regardless of the size of the gain.
As always – this is intended as “edutainment” and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.