RKLB ā Bullish on Rocket Lab | Buying the Fear š
I’ve opened a long position in Rocket Lab (RKLB), and I remain optimistic about the stock from both a technical and fundamental perspective.
Why I’m bullish:
1. Strong technical support: The $53 area is an important weekly support zone on my chart and a potential liquidity area. I believe the recent sharp decline could trigger stop-loss orders and create an opportunity for buyers to step in.
2. The Neutron delay wasn’t entirely unexpected: In its August 10 earnings report, Rocket Lab indicated that Neutron was targeting arrival at the launch pad in Q4 2026. To me, this was already a signal that a launch delay was becoming increasingly likely.
Despite reporting excellent results, including record quarterly revenue of $234 million and a record backlog of $2.36 billion, the stock didn’t respond as positively as I had expected. My interpretation is that concerns about the Neutron timeline were already weighing on sentiment.
Now that the delay to 2027 has been officially confirmed, I believe a significant portion of this negative development may already be reflected in the price.
3. Institutional interest: Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has continued accumulating Rocket Lab shares at prices above current levels. While institutional buying doesn’t guarantee a recovery, it supports my longer-term confidence in the company’s potential.
4. CFO insider selling: Adam Spice recently sold approximately $9.9 million worth of shares. However, this wasn’t a sudden decision following the Neutron announcement. The transaction took place on October 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan established on June 3, 2026, more than three months earlier.
5. Market psychology ā Buy the fear: The stock has already experienced significant selling pressure, and the official delay announcement has added further weakness. My thesis is that we could be approaching a capitulation phase, where stop-loss orders are triggered, liquidity is swept, and stronger buyers potentially begin accumulating shares.
My technical levels
– Key support: $53ā54
– First resistance: $58.92
– Next resistance: $63.68
– Higher targets: $66ā70
– Risk level: A sustained breakdown below $53, particularly toward $50.80, would weaken my bullish thesis.
I’m not expecting an immediate recovery, and further downside is certainly possible. However, I believe the current risk/reward is becoming increasingly attractive for a speculative long position.
My view: Sometimes the best opportunities appear when fear is at its highest and negative expectations are already reflected in the price.
I’m betting on a potential recovery, not claiming the bottom is guaranteed.
This is my personal analysis, not financial advice. šš
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