Shell expects global LNG demand to reach nearly 700 million tonnes per year by 2050, up about 65% from 2025 levels, according to its latest LNG Outlook 2026. The energy major projects that around 180 million tonnes per year of new liquefaction capacity will come online by 2030, with additional investment required through the following decades to meet rising consumption.
The company said global LNG trade reached 422 million tonnes in 2025 and had been expected to grow further this year. However, shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz—triggered by the recent Middle East conflict—temporarily shut in roughly one-fifth of monthly global LNG supply, lifting Asian spot prices above $20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).
Shell said increased liquefaction output from North America, stronger performance at existing facilities, and softer LNG imports in Asia have partially offset reduced Middle Eastern exports. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes during the summer, total LNG trade in 2026 could remain broadly in line with last year before resuming growth in 2027.
“The LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions,” Cederic Cremers, Shell’s President of Integrated Gas, said, adding that LNG would continue to play a stabilizing role in the global energy system despite the need for further investment in supply and infrastructure.
Shell expects South and Southeast Asia to account for around 40% of global LNG imports by 2050 as countries seek lower-emissions alternatives to coal while meeting rising electricity demand. The company also highlighted growing demand from LNG bunkering, which it forecasts will increase sevenfold to 27 million tonnes annually by 2035, and rising electricity consumption from data centers in mature Asian markets such as Japan.
Europe is also expected to remain an important LNG market as domestic natural gas production declines and gas-fired generation supports intermittent renewable power. While recent geopolitical tensions drove up spot prices, Shell noted the market has become more resilient than during the 2022 energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, largely because long-term contracts now account for around two-thirds of global LNG trade.
Shell’s annual LNG Outlook, now in its tenth edition, shows the market has expanded significantly over the past decade, with global LNG trade increasing by around 60%, the number of importing countries rising from 36 to 49, and LNG-fueled ships growing from 77 to more than 800.