S&P 500: The Rising Trend in Place Since October 2022 Has Been Broken for the Second Time
The first break happened when Trump’s tariffs were announced. Fear and uncertainty in the market hit record levels — yet roughly four weeks later, the index managed to reclaim the rising channel.
We are now in the second week below the rising trend.
Momentum belongs to the bears. RSI sits at 39.74 and continues to fall — the fourth lowest reading of the past four years.
The technical picture only reinforces this. Moving averages are broadly flashing a strong sell signal. From MA5 to MA200, 10 indicators are on sell, only 2 on buy. MACD is in sell territory at -5.07. The SMA200 stands at 6,654 — the index is now trading below the most critical average that separates bull from bear.
Conclusion
Trump’s tariffs broke the market once — and it recovered in four weeks.
The current breakdown is happening in a very different environment: an active war, a Fed with its hands tied, and every technical indicator pointing down. These two breaks are not the same. For the uptrend to be reclaimed, buyers first need to stabilize momentum, then push the index back inside the channel with a strong close.
Until that happens, it may be too early to talk about a recovery.