SpaceX’s IPO dream runs into Wall Street’s oldest test: Chart of the Day

SpaceX (SPAX.PVT), OpenAI (OPAI.PVT), and Anthropic (ANTH.PVT) have scale and tech appeal. IPO history says those help — but profits are still the cleaner test.

That matters as SpaceX pitches investors on a record $75 billion public offering. The company has rockets, satellites, Starlink, defense demand, and one of the biggest private-market stories on the planet. What it may not have is the one thing Wall Street eventually asks every growth story to show: that the business can make money.

SpaceX’s filing shows the scale, but also the gap. The company generated nearly $19 billion in revenue in 2025 but posted a net loss of nearly $5 billion, according to its IPO paperwork. That gives investors plenty of business to analyze — but not a profitable one yet.

A great company can still be a rough trade on IPO day. After the opening rush, the question shifts from who wants access to what the business can already prove.

That is where the data gets uncomfortable.

SpaceX’s IPO dream runs into Wall Street’s oldest test: Chart of the Day — Money-losing IPOs jumped more on day one, but profitable IPOs delivered far better three-year returns. · Yahoo Finance analysis of Jay R. Ritter, University of Florida data

According to IPO data from the University of Florida’s Jay Ritter, money-losing companies had the louder opening act, jumping 26.5% on average on their first day. But three years later, their average return was slightly negative. Profitable IPOs did the opposite: fewer first-day fireworks, better staying power.

SpaceX is not a tiny startup, and that matters too. Its IPO filing gave investors a look at a business with real revenue, not just a story stock with a rocket emoji taped to it.

Ritter’s data shows why that helps. IPOs with more than $100 million in pre-debut revenue had smaller opening pops but much stronger returns over the next three years than companies below that line.

IPOs with more revenue had smaller opening pops but stronger returns over the next three years. · Yahoo Finance analysis of Jay R. Ritter, University of Florida data

Tech also helps, which is good news for the whole SpaceX-OpenAI-Anthropic class. But tech is not magic.

That is especially important for the AI names. OpenAI and Anthropic have the kind of growth stories investors want to believe in, but tech labels do not erase the same public-market math: how much revenue is real, how fast losses are narrowing, and whether the IPO price leaves anything for new buyers.