The U.S. equity markets finished their fourth consecutive losing week, due to negative sentiment arising from surging oil prices and fears that potential rising inflation could reflect on the economic outlook in the future period. At the same time, the Fed held rates unchanged, but the tone of Fed Chair Powell was perceived as hawkish by investors, increasing fear that the Fed might even increase interest rates in the future period, if necessary. For the moment, the Fed sees at least one rate cut for this year, which might probably occur in the second half of the year. Overall, as long as war in the Middle East holds oil prices at higher levels, investors’ confidence will remain negative.
The S&P 500 extended its decline, falling around 1.5% and closing the week at 6.506. Weakness was broad across the index, with most sectors under pressure, particularly materials and consumer discretionary, while only a few defensive names showed resilience. Among major companies, tech and AI-related stocks such as Nvidia and Palantir declined, while isolated gains were seen in names like FedEx and some energy-linked firms benefiting from higher oil prices.
Overall, sentiment within the S&P 500 remains fragile, as higher-for-longer rates and persistent inflation risks continue to weigh on equities and corporate outlooks. For the moment, not many analysts are revising their outlooks on the S&P 500 for this year, they remain structurally bullish. However, they acknowledge macro risks to be extended through Q2 this year. In this sense, the upside might be rather choppy than a clear rally.