SPY Is One Point From The Level That Opens The Lean.

SPY Is One Point From The Level That Opens The Lean.

SPY held 740.44 exactly as flagged and has bounced to 747.16 – one point under the 748 reclaim named on Friday as the trigger. The setup underneath has firmed considerably: conviction is top-quartile, the thesis is a long, structure is bull transitional, and the entry signal is forming. This is the one instrument where a confirmed break carries a real edge, and this is the closest the setup has come to actually triggering. It has not triggered yet. 748 is a reclaim on a close, not a poke. Neutral until it clears.

Resistance: 748.00 – the trigger level
Key resistance: 751.00, then the 755.66 ceiling
Current price: 747.16
Support: 745.00 – first support
Key support: 740.44 – the line that held
Structural floor: 739.34 – the swept low

Two paths from here:

748 clears and the long setup triggers. A confirmed reclaim with conviction already top-quartile completes the shakeout off 740.44 and puts 751 and the 755.66 ceiling back in play. This is the setup we have been waiting on for two weeks – and it needs the close, not the touch.

It stalls under 748 and retests the floor. Failing one point short of the trigger, with the ceiling untested and volatility extended, sends it back toward 745 and then 740.44. A second test of that floor would be weaker than the first.

SPY did everything asked of it – held the line, bounced, built the setup. It is now one point from the trigger. A confirmed reclaim of 748 is the first genuinely leanable event in two weeks. Short of that, it stays Neutral.

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Study, not financial advice.