SPY/SPX Mid Week Update
SPY shifted into a bullish structure following the US/Israel–Iran ceasefire news.
With the sharp drop in crude oil and DXY, risk assets and indices transitioned into a more neutral to bullish structure.
Because of this shift, a Mid Week update became necessary outside of the weekly framework.
Mid Week Scenarios / Updates
We will approach this with a level to level mindset.
SPY is currently trading inside the Upper SD zone, which is also aligned with a nearby bearish trendline. This is a seller heavy area. A rejection from here would likely push price back toward the next band below, which is the Mid SD zone.
Bullish Scenarios
Scenario 1:
If price breaks above the Upper SD and secures acceptance, I will look to take Calls on the retest around 679.
Target: 691
Scenario 2:
If price pulls back to the Mid SD, finds support and confirms a bounce, I will look to take Calls around 663.
Target: 674
Bearish Scenarios
Scenario 1:
If Upper SD breaks to the downside and price closes below it, I will look to take Puts on a retest around 674.
Target: 663
Scenario 2:
Trendline Deviation Scenario:
If price slightly deviates above the Upper SD and trendline, creating a fake breakout and trapping bulls, then quickly moves back below 674, I will look to short from current price without waiting for a retest.
Scenario 3:
If price breaks below the Mid SD, I will look to short the market.
Target: 648 (Lower SD)
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This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.