The market is at the start of the next commodity supercycle, according to energy strategist and investor Jeff Currie of Carlyle Group.
In a thread posted to X Friday morning, Currie laid out a multipronged argument for why the market is right at the beginning of the next years-long rally cycle for commodities.
First, the AI trade, for which the “Magnificent Seven” companies are expected to spend more than $700 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 alone, faces major physical bottlenecks.
Second, the market is swinging increasingly toward deglobalization, moving in the opposite direction of the last commodities supercycle that began in the early 2000s with China’s emergence on the world stage as a major economic power and the increasing interconnection of international markets.
In an environment of deglobalization, Currie argued, supply chains get tighter and competition for an increasingly small supply of resources increases.
“The 2000s super cycle was HAGO — Hard Assets, Global Operations. China assembling, Russia piping, dollars recycling, everything moving across borders frictionlessly,” Currie wrote. “That regime is dead.”
His closing argument: “Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.”