The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.38%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.17%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.26%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.35%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +1.27%.
Stock indexes are climbing today as Monday’s rebound in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks gathers pace. The recent selloff in chipmakers has cheapened valuations and has enticed dip buyers ahead of earnings results of megacap technology stocks this week, beginning with Alphabet on Wednesday. On the negative side, software stocks are weak after Morgan Stanley downgraded several stocks in the sector.
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Crude oil prices are edging higher today but remain below Monday’s 5-week high. WTI crude oil (CLQ26) is up more than +1% today as the US and Iran exchanged strikes for a 10th consecutive day even as mediators sought to revive a truce. The US targeted military command centers, launch sites, and air defenses in Iran today. Meanwhile, Iran attacked US military sites in Kuwait and Jordan. The UK navy also reported Iran struck two vessels around the Strait of Hormuz. Also, Houthi rebels on Monday said they will impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they say is the kingdom’s siege on the Yemeni capital, a potential threat to Saudi Arabian crude exports through the Red Sea.
The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which begin in earnest this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1’s blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500’s earnings-per-share growth in Q2.
The markets are discounting a 17% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.
Overseas stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.41%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +1.79%. Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up sharply by +3.26%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -4 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +2.4 bp at 4.616%. Today’s strength in stocks has reduced safe-haven demand for T-notes. Also, rising crude oil prices today are boosting inflation expectations and weighing on T-notes. Heightened Middle East tensions are supporting safe-haven demand for T-notes after President Trump threatened a disproportionate response for any Americans killed by Iran.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield climbed to a 2-month high of 3.175% and is up +2.4 bp to 3.174%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +0.8 bp to 5.040%.
The German Jul ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +15.8 to a 5-month high of 26.3, stronger than expectations of 15.3.
Swaps are discounting a 5% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on Thursday.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are climbing today, supporting gains in the overall market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up more than +3%. Sandisk (SNDK) is up more than +10% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Teradyne (TER), Micron Technology (MU), and Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +8%. Also, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is up more than +7%, and Applied Materials (AMAT), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Intel (INTC) are up more than +6%. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Lam Research (LRCX), and KLA Corp (KLAC) are up more than +4%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) are up more than +3%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving higher today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rising to a 1-month high. Coinbase Global (COIN) is up more than +8%, and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is up more than +7%. Also, Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up more than +5%, and Strategy (MSTR) is up more than +3%. In addition, MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are up more than +2%.
Software stocks are under pressure today after Morgan Stanley downgraded Adobe, Intuit, and Workday. Thomson Reuters is down more than -3%, and Workday (WDAY) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Adobe Systems (ADBE) and Atlassian Corp (TEAM) are down more than -2%, and Salesforce (CRM) is down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. In addition, Autodesk (ADSK), Datadog (DDOG), Intuit (INTU), and ServiceNow (NOW) are down more than -1%.
Hasbro (HAS) is up more than +10% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 net revenue of $1.14 billion, better than the consensus of $1.07 billion, and boosting its full-year adjusted Ebitda forecast to $1.45 billion to $1.50 billion from a previous forecast of $1.40 billion to $1.45 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.45 billion.
3M Co (MMM) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.40, stronger than the consensus of $2.25, and raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $8.80 to $8.95 from a previous forecast of $8.50 to $8.70.
Nebius Group NV (NBIS) is up more than +8% after Nvidia reported a 9.3% stake in the company in a 13G filing.
Ralph Lauren (RL) is up more than +2% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform with a price target of $410.
Danaher (DHR) is down more than -13% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting Q3 non-GAAP core revenue growth of 2.0% to 3.0%, weaker than the consensus of 3.61%.
MSCI Inc (MSCI) is down more than -10% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.94, below the consensus of $4.99, and boosting its full-year operating expenses estimate to $1.54 billion to $1.58 billion from a previous estimate of $1.49 billion to $1.53 billion.
Equifax (EFX) is down more than -6% after lowering the top end of its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $8.39 to $8.69 from $8.34 to $8.74.
Halliburton (HAL) is down more than -5% after reporting Q2 adjusted operating income of $683 million, weaker than the consensus of $688.7 million.
Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) is down more than -4% after announcing it will not advance the development of tebapivat for sickle cell disease following Phase 2 trial results that failed to establish a differentiated profile versus placebo.
Earnings Reports(7/21/2026)
3M Co (MMM), Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK), Ally Financial Inc (ALLY), Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY), Bank OZK (OZK), Capital One Financial Corp (COF), Charles Schwab Corp/The (SCHW), Chubb Ltd (CB), Danaher Corp (DHR), DR Horton Inc (DHI), East West Bancorp Inc (EWBC), EQT Corp (EQT), Equifax Inc (EFX), General Motors Co (GM), Genuine Parts Co (GPC), Halliburton Co (HAL), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR), KeyCorp (KEY), Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc (MRSH), MSCI Inc (MSCI), Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC), Pegasystems Inc (PEGA), Range Resources Corp (RRC), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Valmont Industries Inc (VMI), Vicor Corp (VICR), Weatherford International PLC (WFRD), Webster Financial Corp (WBS), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com