The CPI showed a higher than expected rise of 0.4% for core inflation versus 0.3% expected. The headline number was up 0.6% as expected. The YoY for core was higher-than-expected at 2.8% versus 2.7%. The headline came in at 3.8%. The CPI has been above 2% since March 2021. That is a lot of compounded CPI price gains.
The US yields have actually dipped a bit vs pre CPI levels. The two year yield is at 3.962%, up 1.5 basis points. The 10 year is up 1.1 basis points at 4.422%.
US stocks in premarket trading are a little bit better but still lower on the day with the NASDAQ down -208 points and the S&P down -20 points.
Crude oil remains elevated with the price up $2.65 on the day at $100.75 but below the high for the day at $102.05. The price is trying to hold support at the 200 hour MA at 100.36.
Looking at the US dollar, the EURUSD retested it’s a 200 hour moving average at 1.1736, but is trading backup at 1.1745 currently. The price remains between its 100 hour moving average above at 1.17587, and it’s 200 hour moving average below at 1.1736. Traders will be looking for a break with momentum.
The USDJPY continues to trade above the 200 day MA at 157.36 and is trying to hold support above the 38.2% of teh move up from the February 12 low at 157.496. The upside target remains between 157.97 and 158.26. Rallies have been met with threat of intervention which could keep sellers in play. Watch 100 day MA and below that the 200 hour MA at 156.99 and below that the 100 hour MA at 156.80.
The GBPUSD dipped to the high of the swing area between 1.3497 to 1.35128 and is bouncing. The price is trading near 1.3530 currently. The price is still down -0.56% on the day as the market reacts to the ship sinking for PM Starmer. A 3rd minister – Labour Minister Davies-Jones – has resigned.
USDCAD runs up to the ceiling between 1.3708 up to 1.3715. The 100 day MA is close by as well at 1.37182. Stay below that ceiling up to the 100 day MA keeps the sellers in play. The current price is trading at 1.3703. The high for the day reached 1.3712.