There’s a stretch of water between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula about 90 miles long.
Most of the world’s traded ammonia and most of the world’s traded urea move through it on ships, with about 25-30% of all globally traded ammonia and about 35-40% of all globally traded urea passing through this single stretch of water. Urea is the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer on earth.
The Strait of Hormuz.
When the Iran war started, that strait stopped working the way it used to. Tankers that should be moving aren’t. Iranian export volumes through Hormuz have collapsed.
And every other major exporter has tightened the rope at the same time.
China has restricted urea exports through most of 2026. Russia has done the same on nitrogen, prioritizing domestic agriculture.
Egypt just slapped a $90-per-ton duty on nitrogen fertilizer exports. Every move pulls more supply out of the global market.
Meanwhile, India is about to consume what’s left.
India entered 2026 with low fertilizer inventories.
CF Industries said on its Q1 call that India’s urea imports could reach 10-12 million metric tons this year, roughly double the 2024 level. Some country, somewhere, has to ship them that fertilizer, and the Middle East can’t, China won’t, and Russia and Egypt are restricted.
That leaves the United States.
And CF Industries (CF) is the cleanest pure-play in the United States on the snap-back that’s coming.
CF is the largest North American nitrogen producer with cost-advantaged natural gas and the world’s largest ammonia production network. No potash drag, no phosphate margin compression, no diversified segment to dilute the math. 100% leverage to nitrogen prices.
The Q1 numbers prove the setup. CF reported earnings on May 7 with EPS of $3.98 against expectations of $2.50, a 59% beat. Revenue hit $1.99 billion, above the $1.8 billion expected, and adjusted EBITDA was $983 million.
The company has $1.7 billion remaining on its share buyback authorization, which they intend to use before expiration.
Yesterday, the stock ripped 5.91% to close at $130.39 on above-average volume after Scotiabank hiked its price target to $120. The stock blew through that target in a single session.
I don’t have a position yet.
But the chart’s doing exactly what I look for in a momentum setup.
CF is in a bullish stacked-EMA setup on the daily and weekly timeframes. The 8 EMA at $123.61 is above the 20 EMA at $123.09, both well above the 200 SMA at $95.32, and all three are sloping up. RSI sits at 57, which means there’s plenty of room to run before it overheats.
Underneath that price action, a daily squeeze is forming.
When a squeeze sets up on a name that’s already trending higher with stacked EMAs and a confirmed fundamental tailwind, that’s the cleanest version of my TPS framework: trend, pattern, squeeze.
I find that squeezes on stocks near highs tend to have explosive reactions.
Your Action Plan
CF is on the watchlist because the structure is exactly what I hunt for every week.
A company at the chokepoint of a global nitrogen supply crisis, beating earnings by 59%, with a $1.7 billion buyback authorization ready to deploy, and a chart showing me bullish stacked EMAs, fresh momentum, and a squeeze forming.
That’s the profile of a name that can run, and I’d rather have it on the list ready to go than try to catch up to it after the trigger fires.
If you want my actual trades and the positions I’m in,then check out Daily Profits Live.