Gold is currently compressed beneath the descending trendline, creating a clear technical decision point. After the sharp sell-off from the 4,500 area, price has recovered but remains capped below the trendline and the 4,440–4,450 Demand zone. The repeated inability to reclaim this resistance suggests that sellers are still defending the short-term structure, while the tightening price action raises the probability of a strong breakout once either side takes control.
From a macro perspective, Gold is still dealing with the aftermath of the stronger U.S. jobs report, which pushed expectations for a September Fed rate hike toward 60% and kept Treasury yields elevated. However, USD weakness today has allowed Gold to stabilize around 4,400. The next major catalyst is U.S. inflation: PPI on Thursday and CPI on Friday will be important for determining whether the Fed maintains a hawkish stance.
Technically, the key battle is now around 4,440–4,450. A rejection beneath the descending trendline would confirm that the current rebound is only corrective and could send Gold back toward 4,380–4,400, followed by the major 4,300–4,320 Supply zone. Conversely, if buyers can break and hold above the trendline with a confirmed H4 close, the bearish structure would begin to weaken and open the way toward 4,480–4,500.
Bearish Scenario — Preferred Bias
Gold fails to break the descending trendline and is rejected from 4,440–4,450. Sellers regain control, break below 4,380–4,400, and target 4,300–4,320.
Bullish Scenario
A clean H4 breakout above the descending trendline and 4,450 would be the first signal that sellers are losing control. Holding above this area could trigger a recovery toward 4,480–4,500, with 4,560 becoming the next major resistance.
At this stage, Lucas favors waiting for the breakout confirmation rather than anticipating it. The market is compressed, and the next decisive move could come from either the trendline breakout or a breakdown through 4,380.
BIAS: BEARISH — GOLD REMAINS UNDER THE TRENDLINE. WAIT FOR THE BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION.