- Prior 5.2%
- Employment change 84k vs -4k expected
- Prior 52k
- Average weekly earnings +3.9% vs +3.9% 3m/y expected
- Prior +4.2%
- Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.8% vs +4.0% 3m/y expected
- Prior +4.2%; revised to +4.1%
- February payrolls change 20k
- Prior -11k; revised to 6k
There are quite a few positives to note, one that the BOE can be a little happier with at the balance. For one, the jobless rate is seen keeping steady in January and payrolls in February recorded a positive estimate (alongside a positive revision for January too). Besides that, wage pressures are also seen moderating further with real earnings ex bonus now dropping to +0.5% – matching the three months from April to June last year (which was the softest in two years).
All that being said, this would’ve been a decent report for the BOE to work with in teeing off another rate cut. That had it not been for the US-Iran conflict and now having to consider higher oil prices and a more stubborn inflation outlook.
As such, the report here is very much dated as market players and policymakers will need a better snapshot. And that means one that includes capturing the impact of the latest developments on price pressures.
Besides that, ONS continues to warn of data quality issues with the report again. But hey, what else is new.