• Prior was -0.7%
  • January non-defense capital goods orders ex air +0.1% vs 0.0% prelim

The Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey tracks the dollar value of new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories across the U.S. manufacturing sector. The full factory orders report covers both durable and nondurable goods and is typically released about a week after the advance durable goods report, which serves as an early read on the more volatile durable goods component.

In December 2025, total factory orders fell 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted $617.5 billion, pulling back from a six-month high of $621.9 billion in November, when orders had surged 2.7 percent. Durable goods orders declined 1.4 percent, driven by a 5.4 percent drop in transportation equipment — specifically a 24.8 percent plunge in nondefense aircraft and parts following a near-doubling in November tied to a spike in Boeing bookings. Outside of transportation, underlying demand was firmer: orders rose for computers and electronic products (3.1 percent), primary metals (2.1 percent), fabricated metal products (0.9 percent), and machinery (0.5 percent). Nondurable goods orders were essentially flat for a second consecutive month. Shipments rose 0.5 percent, unfilled orders climbed 0.9 percent to $1.5 trillion, and inventories edged up 0.1 percent.

The preliminary January 2026 advance durable goods report, released on March 13 after a delay caused by the government shutdown, showed new durable goods orders essentially flat at $321.2 billion, missing expectations for a 1.2 percent gain. Transportation equipment again weighed on the headline, declining 0.9 percent. Excluding transportation, orders rose a more encouraging 0.4 percent. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — a closely watched proxy for business investment plans — were flat after a revised 0.8 percent gain in December. Shipments increased 0.6 percent and unfilled orders continued to build, rising 0.8 percent to $1.54 trillion, while inventories grew for a fourth straight month.