US100 Price analysis

Hello Traders,

Since the Iran-US war began in late February 2026, the stock market has been moving slowly lower in a risk-off environment.
The broader stock market has remained in a strong bullish trend since 2022, experiencing only one notable correction exactly one year ago. However, this year US100 (Nasdaq 100) has been coming down gradually, and the pure price action is showing only downside so far — weak bounces and consistent selling pressure.
I prefer not to go deep into fundamentals. The geopolitical situation is complex and the market’s reaction has been strange and unpredictable at times.
From a technical standpoint, the clearest thing I see is:
If the war continues, US100 will likely keep grinding lower.
Current Technical Picture (4H chart):

Price is trading just below the strong red resistance zone (~24,000 – 24,569).
We have a clear black descending trendline acting as dynamic resistance.
Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from the recent swing high.
No strong bullish absorption or reversal candles yet — only slow downside.

Key Levels to Watch:

Immediate Resistance: 24,056 – 24,569 (red zone + 88.6% Fib)
Current Price: ~23,997
Next Support: 23,690 (50% Fib) → 23,548
Stronger Support Zone: 22,800 – 23,000 area
Deeper Potential Target (if downside accelerates): 22,326 – 22,075 (green zone)

Scenarios:

Most Likely (while war continues): Slow grind lower with occasional weak rallies that get rejected at the red zone or trendline. A break below 23,690 could open the way toward 22,800–23,000.
Bullish Surprise: Clear positive news on de-escalation or ceasefire could trigger a fast relief rally back above 24,200–24,500.
Bearish Acceleration: Prolonged conflict would likely push US100 toward the deeper green support zone.

This looks like a classic risk-off phase where tech-heavy indices like US100 are feeling the pressure. Patience is key — better to wait for either clearer price action or geopolitical developments before taking large positions.

What is your view? Do you expect US100 to continue its slow decline as long as the Iran-US war goes on, or are you seeing any early signs of stabilization?

Not financial advice — always use proper risk management and trade responsibly.