USD is moving lower helped by lower oil and yields. What are the charts telling traders?

The USD is trading lower today as oil slips back below $100 and Treasury yields edge down. The 10-year yield is off -2.2 bps at 4.367%, while the 2-year is also down -2.2 bps at 3.865%.

On the data front, ISM Manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected but held above the 50 levelā€”keeping the sector in expansion. The report had a mixed tone: employment declined, while new orders and prices moved higher, pointing to ongoing demand alongside persistent cost pressures.

In the video above, I walk through the major currency pairs versus the USDā€”breaking down the technicals that define the bias, risk, and targets.

EURUSD

The EURUSD pushed to new highs and is now targeting the April 21ā€“22 highs near 1.1790.

  • Above 1.1790 ā†’ opens the door toward the next swing area at 1.1823ā€“1.1836
  • The pair has already broken and extended away from this weekā€™s high at 1.17544, signaling strong upside momentum
  • Bias: Bullish above 1.1754

USDJPY

USDJPY remains range-bound, with key levels clearly defining the battlefield:

  • Resistance: 100-day MA at 157.26
  • Support: 61.8% retracement at 155.50
  • Pivot: 50% midpoint at 156.50

Price is rotating above and below that midpointā€”acting as the rudder:

  • Above 156.50 ā†’ more bullish tilt
  • Below 156.50 ā†’ sellers gain control
  • Bias: Neutral within the range, awaiting a break

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has broken higher after holding support in a key April swing area:

  • Support: 1.3575ā€“1.3598 (now risk-defining zone)
  • High today: 1.3658 (highest since mid-February)

Upside targets:

  • 1.3725ā€“1.3772 (next major swing area)
  • Year high: 1.3869
  • Bias: Bullish above 1.3575

USDCHF

USDCHF continues to push lower and is approaching key support:

  • April low: 0.7773
  • 61.8% retracement: 0.7770

This is a critical decision zone:

  • A break below would increase bearish momentum
  • On the first test, expect dip buyers to lean with tight risk
  • Bias: Bearish, but support is being tested

NZDUSD

NZDUSD has rebounded sharply after making lower lows over the past three weeks:

  • The earlier break below the 4H 200-bar MA (0.5829) failed to sustain momentum
  • Price is now testing a key swing area

Key levels:

  • Resistance: 0.5927ā€“0.5935
  • High today: 0.5924
  • Above 0.5935 ā†’ opens the door for further upside extension
  • Bias: Turning more bullish on a break higher

USDCAD

USDCAD continues its move lower, extending the downside momentum from midweek:

  • Broke below swing area at 1.3593ā€“1.3600
  • Low today: 1.3550

Next downside targets:

  • 1.3521ā€“1.3531 (swing area)
  • February low: 1.3503
  • Year low: 1.3482
  • Bias: Bearish below 1.3600

Bottom line:

Lower yields and softer oil are weighing on the USD, while technically, most pairs are either extending trends (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD) or coiling for a break (USDJPY). The levels above define the battlefieldā€”stay with the bias, define the risk, and let the market confirm the next move