The Macro View 🛰️
USD/JPY has been a volatility monster lately, but the price action is becoming increasingly predictable. As we hover near multi-decade highs, the market is showing clear signs of exhaustion and potential intervention fears (or simply profit-taking).
The Setup: Descending Broadening Wedge 🧩
The Resistance: Price attempted to reclaim the 159.400 zone but was met with aggressive selling pressure. We are now seeing a sequence of lower highs.
The Pattern: We are currently trading inside a Descending Broadening Wedge. This pattern indicates that while the range is expanding, the overall momentum is shifting toward the downside.
The Pivot: Notice how the price is currently hugging the upper resistance line. This is a “Make or Break” moment. The lack of a breakout here confirms that the path of least resistance is now DOWN.
The Roadmap: Destination 156.50 🎯
As indicated by the purple projection, we are anticipating a volatile “zig-zag” move lower:
Immediate Resistance: 159.00 – 159.20 must hold to keep the bearish thesis alive.
Primary Target: The lower support line of the wedge, currently sitting near 156.40 – 156.60.
Invalidation: A clean hourly close above 159.50 would negate this setup and signal a fresh attempt at the 160.00 barrier.
The “air is getting thin” at these levels for the Dollar. The broadening wedge suggests that the bears are starting to win the volatility battle. If we don’t see a breakout in the next few candles, expect a rapid slide toward the 156.00 handle.
What’s your plan? Are you shorting the rejection or waiting for the Bank of Japan to step in? Let’s talk in the comments! 👇