The USDCAD has spent much of the time since January 26 trading within a well-defined range between 1.3522 and 1.3724, with multiple rotations between support and resistance.
Last week, sellers pressed the pair down to the lower boundary of that range. However, momentum shifted late in the week, with price breaking above the upper extreme. That breakout ultimately failed, leading to a pullback that corrected 38.2% of the move higher, finding support near 1.3658.
Importantly, sellers could not sustain momentum below that retracement level, prompting a rotation back to the upside. The rebound pushed the pair toward the key resistance zone between 1.37149 and 1.3724, but buying interest stalled just short at 1.3709, reinforcing that ceiling.
Since then, the price has rotated back lower and is now drifting toward yesterday’s closing levels.
From a technical perspective:
-
On the downside, a move below 1.3658 (38.2% retracement) and the rising 100-hour MA at 1.3654 would increase bearish momentum
-
A break below that zone would open the door toward the next support area between 1.3624 and 1.3630, where the rising 200-hour MA also comes into play
-
On the upside, buyers need to break and hold above 1.3724 to shift control more convincingly and escape the broader range
Bias assessment:
-
Bullish above 1.3658, where buyers have recently defended support
-
Bearish on failure near 1.3724, where sellers continue to cap rallies
Overall, while the pair sits closer to the top of its multi-month range—suggesting buyers have the slight edge—the inability to break resistance keeps the broader consolidation intact. Until 1.3724 is decisively broken, the price action remains range-bound.