The USDJPY moved sharply lower earlier today, breaking below both its 100-day moving average at 157.316 and the falling 100-hour moving average at 156.90 — a bearish technical development that shifted momentum firmly in favor of the sellers. The decline also pushed the pair below the 50% retracement of the rally from the February 12 low to last week’s high, a key midpoint level that comes in at 156.50.
The selling pressure accelerated the pair down to 155.04 — the lowest level since February 24 — before support buyers stepped in. That rebound carried the price back toward the 156.50 midpoint, where sellers once again leaned against resistance and forced another dip lower. However, downside momentum stalled near last week’s lows and the 61.8% retracement level around 155.50, helping stabilize the pair and spark another recovery attempt back toward the midpoint level.
So what comes next?
The 156.50 level remains the key short-term barometer for both buyers and sellers. Earlier this week, buyers leaned against that level and used it as a springboard for a move higher. Today, however, sellers defended the same area aggressively after the rebound, reinforcing its importance as a pivotal battleground.
If buyers are to regain more control, they need to push the price back above 156.50 and, more importantly, stay above it. A sustained move higher would target a retest of the falling 100-hour moving average near 156.97, with additional upside momentum potentially opening the door toward the 100-day moving average at 157.316.
Absent a break back above the midpoint, the market is likely to remain trapped between the 61.8% retracement support near 155.50 and the 50% retracement resistance at 156.50 — the near-term battle lines that will define the next directional move.