š 1. MACRO CONTEXT: USD IS āDRAININGā GOLD
The deadlock in USāIran negotiations and rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are turning the USD into the number one safe haven. Although FedWatch shows a 35% probability of a rate cut, as long as Jerome Powell hasnāt made an official statement, bears are still in control of the game.
š 2. MARKET STRUCTURE
On the H4 timeframe, we are looking at a classic distribution scenario:
Liquidity Sweep: Retail sellers were wiped out around ~$4,860 before the reversal.
CHoCH & BOS: Price has continuously broken previous lows. A close below $4,660 confirmed strong bearish displacement.
Current State: This is not a pullback ā price is in a free fall, seeking deeper demand zones.
š¦ 3. KEY POIs TO WATCH
š“ Sell Zone (High Priority)
Price range: $4,680 ā $4,700
Reason: Supply/Mitigation Block aligning with previous BOS level. If price retraces here and forms an LTF CHoCH (M5/M15), this is a high-quality short entry.
š¢ Buy Zone (Scalp / Counter-trend)
Price range: $4,550 ā $4,600 (OTE 0.62 ā 0.79 Fib zone)
Reason: Discount zone of the previous bullish leg. A technical bounce is likely.
ā ļø Warning: Donāt try to catch a falling knife without clear signs of accumulation.
šÆ 4. TRADING PLAN
Main Scenario (High Probability):
Wait for price to retrace to $4,68x
Look for rejection on lower timeframes
Targets: TP1: $4,600 | TP2: $4,550
Alternative Scenario (Liquidity Grab):
If price sweeps below $4,550 and shows strong rejection (Spring), consider a scalp buy targeting back toward $4,700
š” āDonāt try to outsmart the market.ā
Many traders lose money trying to catch bottoms at OTE, ignoring the strength of bearish displacement. The trend is your friend ā and right now, itās wearing red.
š Whatās your view? Will gold drop to $4,500 or bounce from here? Share your thoughts below!
ā ļø Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only, not financial advice. Always manage your risk carefully (1ā2% per trade).
#Gold #XAUUSD #Forex #SMC #TradingStrategy #PriceAction