On the higher timeframes, Gold remains firmly bearish. Both the Weekly and Daily structures continue to print lower highs and lower lows, confirming that sellers are in control of the market at this stage.
Shifting to the shorter timeframes, the H4 and H1 charts have a well-defined resistance zone that every trader should have marked on their charts. The first key resistance sits at $4,580, followed by the stronger area at $4,622. As long as Gold fails to break and hold above this zone with conviction, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Should Gold get rejected from this resistance zone, we could easily see another bearish leg develop, bringing price back down to retest the $4,450 support level. A confirmed break below $4,450 would be significant — it could open the floodgates for a much deeper sell-off.
On the Fundamental Side:
The most important event to watch this week is Thursday May 28 — US GDP (Q1 2026 Revised). This is the headline risk event of the week for Gold.
If GDP comes in weaker than expected → recession fears rise → rate cut bets increase → Bullish for Gold
If GDP comes in stronger than expected → the Fed stays on hold longer → Bearish for Gold
It’s worth noting that markets are already pricing in a 97.4% probability of rates remaining unchanged at 3.50–3.75% in June. Any significant GDP surprise — in either direction — could rapidly shift those expectations and create explosive moves in Gold.
Alongside the GDP data, keep a close eye on Trump’s social media activity. With tensions between the US and Iran continuing to escalate, a single tweet or headline can move Gold $30–$50 in a matter of minutes. Do not underestimate geopolitical risk this week — it is very much live and active.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This analysis is based purely on technical chart reading and personal trading experience. It is NOT financial advice. Markets are unpredictable and can move in any direction at any time. No analysis, regardless of how thorough, guarantees any particular outcome. Always manage your risk, use stop losses, and never trade more than you can afford to lose. Trade responsibly. 📉📈